30.3.15

The election campaign begins.

The 2015 General Election campaign officially began today.

One noticeable initial theme is the deep uncertainty which comes with either potential governing party.

The Consevative Party will bring the rampant uncertainty of an In/Out EU referendum and unexplained deep cuts to welfare. A series of prominent Conservative MPs have appeared in the media over the past few days speaking of their giant cuts to the welfare budget, which may potentially be reasonable but do not cover the details of where those cuts will fall, hence rendering it impossible to gauge the fairness of their plans, and leaving people with no option but to suspect those cuts may deeply hurt the most vulnerable in society.

The Tories are not talking much about their EU referendum, even though EU membership is arguably the biggest issue in this general election. If Labour becomes the lead governing party then there will be the safety and security of no EU referendum; if the Conservatives win, then we enter into the dangerous lottery of an EU referendum. One would hope that the polling is correct and Britain would sensibly vote to remain in the EU. However, there is the very real danger that a coalition of right wing Tories, UKIP, the Daily Mail, The Sun, and the Daily Express would whip Britain into the economic suicide of an EU exit.
Hopefully the skilled people that created a powerful grassroots movement for a big surge in support for scottish independence will bring their skills to drive the pro-EU campaign (though with more positive results, as it will start from a better polling base).

The deep uncertainty that comes with a Labour government is how they would go about reducing the deficit. They have announced a handful of costed plans, though most of those costings are heavily-disputed. It's either that Labour can't actually face up to the cuts that they would make or that they dont want to admit the tax rises they would make. It's unclear where the truth is on Labour's deficit reduction methods. The key part of Labour deficit reduction seems to be to raise certain taxes, but those tax raises don't seem to gather enough cash to back up their plans. Various Labour MPs have been grilled on these matters, but nobody has yet been able to glean sufficient detail and clarity on their plans.

In this century, voters are far more sceptical and demand truth and clarity from their MPs, far more so than in the past. The Iraq war and the MP expenses scandal has removed any sense of deference from the electorate to the elected.
The smart thing for a potential government to do is surely to be as open and clear as possible about their plans for governance, chip away at that scepticism and encourage trust.


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